Alun SaltTweets from the Keynote symposia for IBC18
| “ | Bumper session of thinkers coming up: Frank Busby, Mark Burgman and Hugh Possingham. #ibc18 | |||
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I’ll start with Plant diversity and ecology/invasion ecology.
| “ | Keynotes on plant diversity begin. Frank Bisby on tools for studying the global biota. #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Bisby: Biodiversity World – examples of species environmental envelopes, predictive modelling, climate change predictions. #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Bisby. Biodiversity World sounds like an Atlas of Living Australia #alau for the world. workflows, data standards #ibc18 #everybodysdoingit | |||
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| “ | Busby: Catalogue of Life proudly gives you very little information about ever species. #keepingitsimple #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Bisby, the Catalogue of Life. #col http://www.catalogueoflife.org list of species in a hierarchy. #namesinatree #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Bisby: Algaebase! Algae not a natural group, of course (this is why they are fun!). #ibc18 #algaerule | |||
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| “ | The algae: a state of mind. RT @TimEntwisle: Bisby: Algaebase! Algae not a natural group, of course (this is why they are fun!). #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Aren;t the fungi the fun guys? RT @Jim_Croft: The algae: a state of mind. RT @TimEntwisle: Algae not a natural group ( are fun!). #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Algae are phycophun. RT @Pathh1: Aren;t the fungi the fun guys? RT @Jim_Croft: The algae: a state of mind. RT #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Bisby: Setting up a kind of ecosystem of databases. #ibc18 Just what we need, something else to conserve and worry about. | |||
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| “ | Bisby: Catalogue of Life an aggregate of 101 databases. Global species databases now augmented by ‘regional hubs’. #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Bisby: Catalogue of Life networks with data providers (huge page o’ logos). Gets complicated with different taxonomies e.g. algae. #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Bisby: need these tools to have evidence-based science for conservation etc., rather than "seat of the pants" decisions. #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Bisby. Contrasting ‘seat of the pants’ expert opinion with evidence-based decision-making. The role of BD informatics in the latter. # ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Mark Burgman: We make mistakes and experts help us minimise dumb mistakes. #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Burgman: Experts return truth 30-40% of the time. That is, we think we know more than we know. #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Mark Burgman: intel systems for energing plant pests and diseases. Experts over-confident. (You’re not as smart as you think.) #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Mark Burgman, dissecting the cult of the expert. tendency to overestimate quantity, quality, confidence. #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Burgman: Talks about 4-question format to get closer to truth: lowest value, highest value, best guess, confidence #ibc18 Do it now, he says | |||
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| “ | Burgman: developing a 4-step question process to improve performance of experts. Order of Qs is very important. #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Burgman: People with most publications, experience and assessing themselves highly are assessed highly by others… #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Burgman: There is no correlation between experience, quals etc. and performance on relevant, sensible test questions! #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Burgman: ask experts for highest value, lowest value, best guess and how confident they are. Delphi process. #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Burgman: peer assessment of expertise and ability established in 60 seconds. #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | "Experts a social necessity but little more." #ibc18 Mark Burgman always fun. | |||
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| “ | Burgman: no correlation between peer/self assessment and actual performance. none. at all. #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | So an expert isn’t the ‘intelligence system’ of Bergman’s title RT @TimEntwisle: "Experts a social necessity but little more." #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Seems not, but ask a 25 year old. RT @Pathh1: So an expert isn’t the ‘intelligence system’ of Bergman’s title RT @TimEntwisle: #ibc18 | |||
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Today there were tweets from the other session too. The role of modern biology in reducing pest and pathogen threats to global food security.
| “ | No external test of judgement, yet. Expose yourself to cross-examination & train to be estimators of unknowable facts about future. #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Burgman. extra discussion of a topic improves the accuracy of the final collective decision. #ibc18 #weneedtotalk | |||
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| “ | So he understands social media/wiki etc?RT @Jim_Croft: Burgman. discussion of topic improves accuracy of final decision. #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Tweets source of useful information. Shock announcement by Mark Burgman. #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Burgman: now onto biosecurity intelligence software. crawlz ur twitterz and ur facebookz for weedz! #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Burgman: ‘foresight techniques’ enhancing expert judgement and predictions. #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Now Hugh Possingham: Decision science tools for assisted colonisation (managed relocation). #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Hugh Possingham: risk assessment for managed relocation. ‘assisted colonization’. depends extensively on expert opinion. #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Possingham: We have fragmented habitats and we might have to just pick up species and put them somewhere else, if they are to survive.#ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Possingham: Assisted colonisation very contentious, govt etc. often don’t want to talk about it. #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Possingham: Our parks and gardens, and neighbouring lands, are full of assisted colonisations… #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Possingham: using decision trees to assess viability of proposed translocations. #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Possingham: decision-making tools. asks technical feasibility, confidence, risks, etc. most Qs binary, but IRL more nuanced. #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Possingham, rhetorically: "Where are you going to get all that data, Hugh?" … "Not my problem…" #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Possingham says we should ask experts, the guys Burgman says don’t tell you the truth. It’s all becoming much clearer. #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Possingham will get data from experts. Wait a minute… #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Possingham: timing of relocation is also critical. #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | just as well we don’t do taxonomy and systematics this way. 😉 MT @TimEntwisle: Possingham says ask experts, Burgman says don’t. #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | #ibc18 @TimEntwisle well, Burgman said old experts no better than young ones, so perhaps not so hopeless. | |||
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| “ | He also said they were no worse. RT @davidorlovich #ibc18 @TimEntwisle well, Burgman said old experts no better than young ones… | |||
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| “ | Symposium summary: Save biodiversity by creating a virtual laboratory of 25-year-old non-experts armed with a decision-making tree. #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | That’s why UK/US banks failed: no knowledge of borrowers just a laptop & form RT @TimEntwisle Save biodiversity with decision tree #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Possingham showing made up expert lines on graphs. with squiggles for extra added credibility. #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Burgman: "Being 25 is as good as being 65". *audience applause* #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Paul Birch: Finding durable potato late blight resistance. Current genetic resistances easily broken, and sprays (20/season) banned #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Birch: new aggressive Phytophtora genotype expanded prevalence 20x in last 5 years. Particularly aggressive on varietiy Stirling #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Birch: Avirulance and recognition by potato host of pathogen relates to two amino acids in the protein: K/I vs E/M #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | RXLR effectors occur in repetitive transposon rich genome regions in Phytophthora. cf tweet on lots of value in repetitive DNA #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | 160 yrs breeding/no resistance. Now have stable silencing of AVR3a effector. Resistance gene can be modified for novel specificity #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Birch: Phytophthora needs RXLR effectors to cause disease, potato R proteins target RXLR & better ones possible. http://bit.ly/oiTKHb #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Robert Park http://bit.ly/pVuAyT Basically says you can’t talk about global food security without talking about wheat rust. #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Park: 5 wheat rust resistance genes cloned, 3 major wth NBS-LRR domain (like Musa http://bit.ly/ohNTxj). Minor genes give broader res #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Hah The old 1BL.1RS translocation (I worked on it in 80s) & Sr31 resistance to stem rust until race Ug99 emerged. Now tracking spread #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Nice modelling of intercontinental tracking of rust spread quoting Dave Hodson FAO #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Park fields trick questions for a professor: what are Latin names of the pathogens? what about minor QTLs approaches cf Arabidopsis?! #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Donald Gardiner http://bit.ly/qtgatQ More wheat diseases w. little genetic resistance eg crown rot/Fusarium. Big genome comparisons #ibc18 | |||
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| “ | Gardiner shows transfer of toxin genes between fungal genera & new diseases: 3 examples: wheat yellow spot in 1930s, corn more recent #ibc18 | |||
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I think that concludes the morning session, so next I’ll post the afternoon.
