Tagged: species distribution modelling


Climate driven population divergence and future extinction risk in wild tomato

Climate change is generally thought to affect plant distribution by reducing the suitability of a species to its environment and diminishing its effective range. Modelling can be used to assess potential changes in distribution however classical distribution modelling assumes that a species is a homogeneous group having one optimal niche. Given the undeniable evidence of differential local adaptation of diverse populations within a species, results from such modelling can be misleading. In fact, some recent studies have even shown locally adapted populations of a species to respond to climate change differently. Incorporating population differentiation into these models could inform us...

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Map of the presumed geographic distribution of P. adenopoda

Chinese aspen with a dynamic Quaternary evolutionary history

Populus adenopoda (Salicaceae), the Chinese aspen, occurs in the subtropical China region. Fen et al. report a genetic survey to reveal that it survived in multiple glacial refugia during the Last Glacial Maximum (ca. 21 to 18 thousand years ago). Populations in its southern range contain high chloroplast DNA diversity but had little contribution to the post-glacial recolonization of its northern and eastern range. Demographic inferences suggest that P. adenopoda may have experienced multiple rounds of range contraction during the glacial periods and range expansion during interglacial periods. This emphasizes the importance to combine multiple lines of evidences when reconstructing...

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Geographical range of Stauracanthus species in the Iberian Peninsula

Environmental niche divergence among dune shrub sister species

Geographic distributions of species are constrained by their ecological requirements. Chozas et al. study the distribution, environmental responses and evolutionary relationships of the three species of the genus Stauracanthus to assess the processes driving their diversification and current geographic ranges. These species show similar responses to climate, supporting the hypothesis that all members of this young clade retain common physiological adaptations, but diverse edaphic requirements. The revealed patterns of diversification are consistent with a process of geographic range expansion and fragmentation coupled with niche evolution in a context of spatially complex environmental fluctuations.

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Tree and climate

Climate change and the decline of a foundation tree species

A worldwide increase in tree decline and mortality has been linked to climate change, and where these represent foundation species this can have important implications for ecosystem functions. Dalmaris et al. undertake phylogeographic analyses across the species range of Eucalyptus wandoo, an endemic tree of south-western Australia, and find that a combination of phylogeography and paleo-distribution modelling can provide an evolutionary context for climate-driven tree decline, as both can be used to cross-validate evidence for refugia and contraction under harsh climatic conditions. The contraction of E. wandoo from lower rainfall areas is consistent with current observations of decline on the...

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